The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model slid deeper into the red on Monday, estimating that Q1 GDP will sink 2.8% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, from the 1.5% decline it estimated on Friday. The nowcast factored in Monday's release of the February ISM,

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model had, up until the Feb. 28 update, been forecasting growth between 2-4% in line with most other models. A graph on the GDPNow page lists the "Blue Chip Consensus" average of the top 10 and bottom 10 forecasts at a slight tick more than 2% U.S. GDP growth for Q1 2025.