LNG flows halt in the Strait of Hormuz amid US-Israel-Iran tensions. Crude oil at $90 by June now at 5.5% YES.

Trump's pullback from the Iran conflict indicates a shift towards diplomacy. US war declaration by April 30 at 0.5% YES, ...

US prohibits Israel from bombing Lebanon during a 10-day ceasefire. Suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30 at 96.2% YES.

The Strait of Hormuz reopened under Iranian control after a ceasefire. UK warships through the strait by April 30, 2026 at ...

Whale accumulation of Bitcoin rises as exchange reserves fall sharply. Bitcoin above $62K on April 18 at 99.9% YES.

Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz "fully open," boosting the market for lifting the US blockade by May 31, 2026 to 87% YES.

Trump criticized NATO at a TPUSA event, leading to a slight increase in market odds; US withdrawal from NATO by April 30 at 1 ...

Anthropic CEO visits the White House as Claude Mythos AI model is released. Anthropic's top-three AI model odds by April 2026 ...

Iranian mediators are in Turkey for peace talks amid US-Israel tensions. Permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026 at 44.5% YES.

Peru's election outcome depends on 5,000 actas, with López Aliaga's chances dwindling. His odds to win the presidency are at ...

A new, more extreme Iranian regime led by Mojtaba Khamenei has taken control, complicating predictions of regime collapse.

Round two of U.S.-Iran talks is set for Monday in Islamabad, aiming to break the stalemate. A ceasefire by April 30 is at ...